) Quick calendar (essential dates)

Regular season starts: October 21, 2025 (Opening Night doubleheader). NBA
Regular season ends: April 12, 2026. NBA
Play-In: mid-April (around April 14–17). Playoffs begin right after (about April 18); Finals typically start late May / early June depending on series length. NBA+1

2) Big-picture market picture (where the action is)

Championship favorites: the Oklahoma City Thunder opened as and remain the betting favorites to repeat; many books list them around +180 to +260 depending on timing. Other early contenders: Denver Nuggets, Cleveland Cavaliers, New York Knicks. BetMGM+2DraftKings Network+2
MVP race (early): Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Nikola Jokić and Luka Dončić are the main names on early ladders and sportsbooks’ MVP boards. Lines move fast with early-season performance. NBC Sports+1
Win totals: sportsbooks already posted season win totals — OKC had an extremely high team win total (Thunder ~62.5 in opening markets) and other big-market totals (Cavs, Rockets, Nuggets) are visible at DraftKings / BetMGM. Use these to find over/under value. BetMGM+1

3) Top players to watch this season (bets & props relevance)

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (OKC) — reigning MVP and engine of OKC offense; central to MVP / Finals / scoring-leader markets. NBC Sports
Nikola Jokić (DEN) — still a top MVP/futures candidate because of his efficiency and all-around production. NBC Sports
Luka Dončić (LAL) — a prop market magnet (points, triple-doubles, usage). FOX Sports
Victor Wembanyama, Anthony Edwards, Giannis, etc. — great for high-variance prop plays (rookie/young breakout props, rebounds, blocks, 3-pt leader). NBC Sports

4) Concrete +EV betting ideas (early-season) — what I’d look at and why

Important: these are ideas to research and shop (line and timing matter). Don’t take them as guaranteed winners — they’re structured ways to find value.

Futures: selective fades & value buys
- Sell overpriced public chalk when the market has heavily bet one team and books shorten odds in reaction. Conversely, buy early value on top challengers if you believe lines are too long. Example: OKC is market favorite — if you think the market is correctly priced, don’t bet heavy; but if you find +400 on Denver or +800 on Cleveland while your model implies shorter, that’s value. (Check current odds across books and track line movement.) BetMGM+1
Win-total overlays (team season totals)
- Use a quick model (see Section 6) to estimate expected wins from team offensive/defensive ratings and schedule difficulty, then shop win totals. Example: early market gave OKC ~62.5 wins — that’s a very high bar; if your model gives ~58 wins, consider the under (smaller edge but lower variance than outrights). Conversely, look for underpriced teams (new coaching, underrated defense) to take the over. BetMGM+1
MVP / award props — timing matters
- MVP prices fluctuate with early performance. If a top candidate (SGA, Jokić, Luka) starts blazing and the line is still generous at a book, that’s a buy. Opposite: if public money rushes a candidate and the price shortens, avoid. Use a few small stakes on longshot MVPs you think might spike if they heat up — e.g., elite usage players with contract stability. NBC Sports+1
Player props (high frequency of +EV spots)
- Points/assists/rebounds lines are tradable, especially early in the season while sample sizes are small and books are conservative. Look for players with increased usage after offseason roster changes or injuries (for example, a scoring guard whose team lost a co-star). Shop multiple books for even 0.5–1.0 point differences — they matter long-term.
Situational game bets & live edges
- Back teams in back-to-back fatigue, or attack live lines right after a blowout quarter when books lag adjusting rotation/injury info. But only do live if you (a) have fast lines, (b) know the sport tempo, and (c) limit stakes. Live is high variance and dominated by algos — be surgical.
Special markets (NBA Cup, in-season tourney)
- These short tournaments sometimes produce softer markets early — good for contrarian small-staked plays since public attention is lower. NBA

5) Two sample small model checks you can run in minutes

(Use these to find edges vs. sportsbook lines.)

Simple Elo / rating model for win probability
- Inputs: last-season offensive/defensive rating (adjusted), offseason roster changes (key additions/subtractions), home court factor, coach continuity.
- Convert win probability to implied moneyline and compare to sportsbook — take bets where your implied probability > bookmaker implied probability by a margin that covers vig (aim for edges >3–5%).
Total (over/under) model using pace × efficiency
- Estimate expected combined points = (team A offensive rating × pace + team B offensive rating × pace) normalized — compare to the posted O/U. Totals are often mispriced early in season because pace shifts slowly.

If you want I can produce a quick spreadsheet/Elo example for a handful of teams now.

6) Bankroll & staking — how to survive variance

Unit sizing: default 1–2% of bankroll per standard single bet; smaller (0.25–0.5%) for futures/season-longs and props with long odds.
Record keeping: log date, book, market, stake, odds, expected edge (your model), and outcome. Compute closing line value (CLV) monthly — that’s the single best long-term indicator of +EV.
Hedging: use it sparingly to lock profit near season end, especially for futures that have shortened drastically.
Psychology: don’t chase losers. If your model is beat by the market for several months, re-evaluate (not escalate stakes).

7) Line shopping, promos & tools (practical win rate boosters)

Shop lines across multiple sportsbooks every time — 0.5–1 point on spreads or 1–2 points on totals can flip EV. Use arbitrage only if you understand margin & settlement rules.
Use promos carefully (free bets, sign-up bonuses) — they can increase EV but read rollover terms.
Monitor injury reports & rotation news (these move lines; being early helps). The league’s official injury reports and team beat writers are good sources. NBA

8) Early-season specific angles for 2025–26 (based on current markets)

Thunder (OKC): favorites to repeat; if you believe OKC’s young core stays healthy and SGA keeps MVP form, short futures are understandable — but lines have shortened a lot (books expect them to be dominant). If you want exposure, consider smaller stakes on Champions / West champion vs. huge singles. BetMGM+1
Nuggets / Jokić: still in top-tier futures and MVP contention; their market price has been reactive to betting money (lines moved). Watch Jokić’s usage/health early. Reuters+1
Win total trades: OKC’s preseason total (very high ~62.5) is a potential under candidate if you forecast regression or key injuries; conversely, some teams (Dallas, Houston) may have overs that are underpriced relative to expected offensive boosts. Always compare multiple books. BetMGM+1

9) Risks & final checklist before you place any €/$ bet

Confirm legal status where you live and use licensed sportsbooks.
Don’t stake more than you can afford to lose — high variance is the norm.
Always record your expected edge and why you placed the bet (emotion kills returns).
Re-evaluate after a 50-bet sample — if CLV is negative, change strategies.

Sources (most important)

NBA official key dates & schedule. NBA+1
Championship & futures market coverage (BetMGM / DraftKings / ESPN / OddsChecker). BetMGM+2DraftKings Network+2
MVP odds & early-season power/race reporting (NBC Sports, FOX Sports). NBC Sports+1
Win total markets (BetMGM / DraftKings analysis). BetMGM+1
Reuters / news on schedule/media rights & league context. Reuters